You’ve heard it before: “cut your losses and let your winners run.” But most investors can’t explain why that rule works. Beneath it lies a deeper logic, born from probability theory and refined by gamblers, traders, and long-term value investors alike. In this article I talk about two competing philosophies, Martingale and Anti-Martingale, and then […]
My edge lies in the Small Cap Value segment. This is where significant investor wealth is traditionally built, and I am pretty darn good at this. Over the years I have improved my processes to include a mathematically optimal Kelly Criterion based portfolio allocation system. This implementation has been battle tested through periods of volatility
Improved Focus in the Inner Circle and Q3 Performance Wrap Read More »
Margin of Safety is a core concept in value investing. This essentially tells you how much the stock price is discounted from the intrinsic (or fair) value. Margin of Safety serves two separate purposes. Given the importance of margin of safety in managing risk and estimating the target sell price, it is clear why stocks
6 Small Cap Stocks with Deep Margin of Safety Read More »
VLCC tanker charter rates are spiking – Source: Fearnleys Tanker operators move oil from point A to point B. This simple business model goes through cycles. A typical Demand cycle looks like this: Cash flows like water: The daily charter rates are high and the ships are fully booked. The operators are generate spectacular amounts of
[Inner Circle] Squeeze Dollars from Oil Read More »
Turns out that Ted and Todd at Berkshire Hathaway are enterprising investors in the Graham mold. The Graham Enterprising Investor screen relaxes the strict value investing criteria to include more growth orientation. For example, we are not merely looking to buy a dollar now for pennies, we are now open to paying a dollar today
A number of my investment thesis briefs now appear on the ticker pages of Yahoo Finance. You can see 2 examples below: Scroll down to the Featured Community Analysis section. These will be available as long as my thesis remains relevant. Over time you will see these show up on more stock tickers where I
🟦 Introduction Pepsi just reported better than expected earnings and saw its stock pop 6% on the news. It now also forecasts smaller annual earnings decline than previously forecasted. This comes after a period of declining sales and earnings in response to the launch of GLP-1 as well as the impact of the new focus
The first half of the year is done and dusted. The markets have been all over the place, but all our portfolios have performed extremely well. We have not only beat the S&P 500 in 3 out of 4 portfolios (and were in line with the market in the 4th portfolio), but our flagship Small
AIC Portfolios – Outperforming the Market in First Half Read More »
We continue with our review of the company I consider the next Berkshire Hathaway. In this 3rd and final post, I look at the component businesses and arrive at a sum of the parts valuation for the company. As a result, I find that the stock today is selling at 39% discount to the fair
[Inner Circle] The Next Berkshire Hathaway, Part 3, Final Read More »
When I look at a balance sheet, I am always interested in a business’ ability to pay its obligations. All companies will go through rough patches over their lifetimes. In as much as we want the business to grow and prosper, and the company to invest in its growth, if the balance sheet is not
Debt to Equity Ratio vs. Interest Coverage Ratio: Which One Deserves Your Trust? Read More »
