It’s easy to let a portfolio drift. Stocks rise, bonds fall, and before you know it, your carefully planned allocation quietly morphs into something riskier than you ever intended. Most investors don’t notice until the next bear market hits.This is where William Bernstein’s 5/25 Rule steps in. it is a remarkably simple framework designed to […]
I was asked recently if we should move to cash to protect from the volatility. Perhaps you have wondered this too. My answer is no. Volatility is a feature of the market. And when you invest in small caps, you do not only learn to live with volatility, but you need to embrace it. Volatility
Do Not Fear Volatility, Trust the Process Read More »
Growth is all the rage today and the markets are quite frothy. Never mind the extraordinary risk presented to us due to the government economic data blackout during the shutdown. One wonders how the market will react when the government reopens and the data starts flowing again. The was to handle this risk is to
5 Large Cap Stocks for GARP Investors – Oct 2025 Read More »
Gold has done the unthinkable. In early October 2025, it broke through $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history, a level that even bullish forecasts a year ago failed to anticipate. The metal has now outperformed the S&P 500, bonds, and even Bitcoin year-to-date, surging more than 50% since January according to Reuters
Is Gold the New Treasury? How Investors Are Redefining “Safe Haven” Read More »
You’ve heard it before: “cut your losses and let your winners run.” But most investors can’t explain why that rule works. Beneath it lies a deeper logic, born from probability theory and refined by gamblers, traders, and long-term value investors alike. In this article I talk about two competing philosophies, Martingale and Anti-Martingale, and then
My edge lies in the Small Cap Value segment. This is where significant investor wealth is traditionally built, and I am pretty darn good at this. Over the years I have improved my processes to include a mathematically optimal Kelly Criterion based portfolio allocation system. This implementation has been battle tested through periods of volatility
Improved Focus in the Inner Circle and Q3 Performance Wrap Read More »
Margin of Safety is a core concept in value investing. This essentially tells you how much the stock price is discounted from the intrinsic (or fair) value. Margin of Safety serves two separate purposes. Given the importance of margin of safety in managing risk and estimating the target sell price, it is clear why stocks
6 Small Cap Stocks with Deep Margin of Safety Read More »
VLCC tanker charter rates are spiking – Source: Fearnleys Tanker operators move oil from point A to point B. This simple business model goes through cycles. A typical Demand cycle looks like this: Cash flows like water: The daily charter rates are high and the ships are fully booked. The operators are generate spectacular amounts of
[Inner Circle] Squeeze Dollars from Oil Read More »
Turns out that Ted and Todd at Berkshire Hathaway are enterprising investors in the Graham mold. The Graham Enterprising Investor screen relaxes the strict value investing criteria to include more growth orientation. For example, we are not merely looking to buy a dollar now for pennies, we are now open to paying a dollar today
A number of my investment thesis briefs now appear on the ticker pages of Yahoo Finance. You can see 2 examples below: Scroll down to the Featured Community Analysis section. These will be available as long as my thesis remains relevant. Over time you will see these show up on more stock tickers where I
