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Market Snapshot – Sat, Nov 22, 2025
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The U.S. labor market showed surprising strength in job growth, though the unemployment rate ticked up, pointing to a tricky balance for the economy. Bloomberg
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The manufacturing sector slowed in November, with the PMI dropping to 51.9 and inventories building while the services sector held up better at 55.0, showing mixed signals. Reuters
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Consumer confidence took a hit in November, with the University of Michigan survey showing a drop in sentiment amid persistent inflation and weaker stock market impacts. The Wall Street Journal
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Markets rallied broadly on the back of growing odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December (futures moved sharply), yet major indexes remain vulnerable given the week’s sharp swings. Barron's
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On the commodity/minerals front: tin prices rebounded amid supply tightening and rising AI‑led demand signals, indicating materials may be gaining structural importance. Crux Investor
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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin inflows have turned positive again while price hovers around ~$85K, backed by rising rate‑cut hopes. 99Bitcoins
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Key takeaway for your investment strategy:
We’re in a transition phase. Policy expectations are shifting (cut odds rising), yet real economy data is mixed (manufacturing softness, consumer unease). Market sentiment is volatile, and that creates opportunity space for disciplined value & income‑oriented moves, while the higher‑volatility growth/AI space remains risky. Use your Kelly/Shannon tools to size exposure, emphasize quality, and keep cash dry for dislocations.
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Nvidia Blowout Earnings Not Enough?
This past week delivered a curious moment in the markets. Investors were on edge ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release. Nvidia then reported another set of blockbuster numbers (demand “off the charts”), yet after a brief pause, the market went right back to being jittery.
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The conversation around a potential AI bubble is only getting louder. I shared my perspective on this in my podcast appearance earlier this week, and the core takeaway remains unchanged: meaningful gains take months and years to compound, but it only takes a handful of volatile days to undo them.
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This is why risk management, not forecasts, hype or narratives, is the single biggest driver of your long-term portfolio performance. Pair prudent risk control with disciplined stock selection in sectors that remain fundamentally undervalued, and you position yourself to sleep well at night, no matter how loud the headlines or how quiet the cocktail parties become.
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Inner Circle Portfolio Performance
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The portfolio performance is updated once a month, and tracked YTD until the end of the prior month. Performance is tracked as time weighted total return.
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Upgrade to Inner Circle
- My actual Small Cap Value portfolio with highly profitable but under followed stocks and Kelly Criterion optimized weights
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Market Anomalies That Persist: Why Value, Size, and Low Volatility Still Work
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The efficient market hypothesis holds that all available information is already reflected in stock prices, making it impossible to consistently beat the market through fundamental analysis. It is an elegant theory. It is also, as decades of empirical evidence now demonstrate, substantially incomplete. Certain return patterns called anomalies because they should not exist in a fully efficient market have persisted …
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Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Your Portfolio: How Value Investors Should Respond in 2026
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Markets hate uncertainty. Value investors, at their best, are supposed to thrive in it. That is the theory. The practice requires more discipline because tariff-driven volatility feels different from a normal correction. The headlines are persistent, the policy outcomes are genuinely unpredictable, and the second-order effects on supply chains and corporate margins are harder to model than a simple revenue …
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Annual Report vs. 10-K: What's Different and Which Sections Value Investors Should Read
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Here is something many new investors do not realize: the glossy annual report your broker links to and the 10-K filed with the SEC are not the same document. One is a marketing tool. The other is a legal document. As a value investor, you should spend most of your time on the legal document. I have been reading 10-Ks …
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