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Market Snapshot – Sat, Nov 22, 2025
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The U.S. labor market showed surprising strength in job growth, though the unemployment rate ticked up, pointing to a tricky balance for the economy. Bloomberg
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The manufacturing sector slowed in November, with the PMI dropping to 51.9 and inventories building while the services sector held up better at 55.0, showing mixed signals. Reuters
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Consumer confidence took a hit in November, with the University of Michigan survey showing a drop in sentiment amid persistent inflation and weaker stock market impacts. The Wall Street Journal
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Markets rallied broadly on the back of growing odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December (futures moved sharply), yet major indexes remain vulnerable given the week’s sharp swings. Barron's
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On the commodity/minerals front: tin prices rebounded amid supply tightening and rising AI‑led demand signals, indicating materials may be gaining structural importance. Crux Investor
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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin inflows have turned positive again while price hovers around ~$85K, backed by rising rate‑cut hopes. 99Bitcoins
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Key takeaway for your investment strategy:
We’re in a transition phase. Policy expectations are shifting (cut odds rising), yet real economy data is mixed (manufacturing softness, consumer unease). Market sentiment is volatile, and that creates opportunity space for disciplined value & income‑oriented moves, while the higher‑volatility growth/AI space remains risky. Use your Kelly/Shannon tools to size exposure, emphasize quality, and keep cash dry for dislocations.
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Nvidia Blowout Earnings Not Enough?
This past week delivered a curious moment in the markets. Investors were on edge ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release. Nvidia then reported another set of blockbuster numbers (demand “off the charts”), yet after a brief pause, the market went right back to being jittery.
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The conversation around a potential AI bubble is only getting louder. I shared my perspective on this in my podcast appearance earlier this week, and the core takeaway remains unchanged: meaningful gains take months and years to compound, but it only takes a handful of volatile days to undo them.
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This is why risk management, not forecasts, hype or narratives, is the single biggest driver of your long-term portfolio performance. Pair prudent risk control with disciplined stock selection in sectors that remain fundamentally undervalued, and you position yourself to sleep well at night, no matter how loud the headlines or how quiet the cocktail parties become.
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Inner Circle Portfolio Performance
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The portfolio performance is updated once a month, and tracked YTD until the end of the prior month. Performance is tracked as time weighted total return.
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Upgrade to Inner Circle
- My actual Small Cap Value portfolio with highly profitable but under followed stocks and Kelly Criterion optimized weights
- Detailed investment thesis for portfolio stocks, including target prices and expected returns emailed to you as soon as published
- 1 year membership with NO auto-renewal. Repurchase membership again if you wish to continue for another year once your term completes.
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Shannon's Demon Explained: Why Rebalancing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Time
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I want to tell you about one of the most counterintuitive ideas in all of investing, an idea so strange that when I first encountered it, I spent about an hour with a spreadsheet trying to convince myself it was wrong before I finally accepted that it was right. It is called Shannon's Demon. And once you understand it, you …
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Full Kelly vs. Fractional Kelly: Which Position Sizing Approach Is Right for You?
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Most investors spend enormous effort deciding which stocks to buy and almost no effort deciding how much to buy. That is exactly backwards. In the long run, position sizing will have as much impact on your returns as stock selection and it will have more impact on your survival as an investor. I use the Kelly Criterion as the mathematical …
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My Deep Value Stock Screening Process: From 3,000 Stocks to a Short List of 5
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There are roughly 3,000 publicly traded US companies with a market capitalization under $2 billion. Most of them are not worth your time. A small number of them are great values hiding in plain sight. Genuinely cheap, financially strengthening businesses that the market has overlooked, misunderstood, or written off prematurely. The challenge is finding them without spending your entire life …
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