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Register for a free website account above and we will send you periodic discounts and other offers to our research, books and Inner Circle membership as well as exclusive perks not available elsewhere.
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Is there an AI Stock Bubble in 2025 Podcast
Are we in an AI bubble now? Should investors avoid AI stocks now or continue to buy them? Joining today on the podcast to discuss these topics are: Shailesh Kumar of Astute Investor's Calculus, Russell Rhoads of Indiana University, and Ivana Delevska of Spear Invest.
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I had the great pleasure of sitting down with Russell Rhoads of Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, and Ivana Delevska of Spear Invest (Spear Alpha ETF), along with the host Steven Lerner to discuss the current market "excesses" in the AI stocks. The panel did a great job examining the valuations and possible outcomes from many different angles. If you are invested in these stocks, or mag 7 or just the S&P 500, you should listen to the podcast now.
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Market Snapshot – Wed, Nov 19, 2025
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Equities: Global shares have stabilized after another AI-valuation driven selloff; traders are cautious but are pausing further de-risking ahead of Nvidia earnings. Reuters
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Main near-term catalyst: Nvidia earnings tonight are seen as a potential make-or-break moment for the 2025 AI rally. Options imply roughly a 7% move in either direction, and commentary frames this as a “global market shock point.” Kiplinger
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Fed & macro: The Fed’s December decision is increasingly hard to handicap. The FOMC is clearly split between hawks pushing “higher for longer” and doves arguing cuts are needed to protect the labor market. Investopedia
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Market-based long-term inflation expectations remain anchored around ~2.2% (5y5y rate) while near-term nowcasts show core inflation running around 0.2–0.3% m/m. FRED
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Rotation: Investors are rotating out of tech winners and into defensive, dividend-paying stocks such as Exxon Mobil and other high-yield names. Bloomberg
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Crypto: Bitcoin has bounced after hitting a 7-month low below 90,000; it is still down sharply from its October peak and remains highly sentiment-sensitive. Reuters
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Flows show stress: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust just saw record single-day outflows of more than half a billion dollars, even as some commentators argue institutional demand supports the long-term “Bitcoin as service” thesis. Bloomberg
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Nvidia earnings tonight can be pivotal. As I say in the podcast, even if you just buy index funds, you are no longer immune to the risks inherent in the elevated valuations in the market, driven by AI stocks. There are some reasonably valued stocks, for sure, in the large caps, but if you really want safety and portfolio growth, it is better to favor small cap value today.
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Inner Circle Portfolio Performance
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The portfolio performance is updated once a month, and tracked YTD until the end of the prior month. Performance is tracked as time weighted total return.
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Upgrade to Inner Circle
- My actual Small Cap Value portfolio with highly profitable but under followed stocks and Kelly Criterion optimized weights
- Detailed investment thesis for portfolio stocks, including target prices and expected returns emailed to you as soon as published
- 1 year membership with NO auto-renewal. Repurchase membership again if you wish to continue for another year once your term completes.
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Market Anomalies That Persist: Why Value, Size, and Low Volatility Still Work
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The efficient market hypothesis holds that all available information is already reflected in stock prices, making it impossible to consistently beat the market through fundamental analysis. It is an elegant theory. It is also, as decades of empirical evidence now demonstrate, substantially incomplete. Certain return patterns called anomalies because they should not exist in a fully efficient market have persisted …
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Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Your Portfolio: How Value Investors Should Respond in 2026
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Markets hate uncertainty. Value investors, at their best, are supposed to thrive in it. That is the theory. The practice requires more discipline because tariff-driven volatility feels different from a normal correction. The headlines are persistent, the policy outcomes are genuinely unpredictable, and the second-order effects on supply chains and corporate margins are harder to model than a simple revenue …
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Annual Report vs. 10-K: What's Different and Which Sections Value Investors Should Read
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Here is something many new investors do not realize: the glossy annual report your broker links to and the 10-K filed with the SEC are not the same document. One is a marketing tool. The other is a legal document. As a value investor, you should spend most of your time on the legal document. I have been reading 10-Ks …
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