Managing Risk

You’ve heard it before: “cut your losses and let your winners run.” But most investors can’t explain why that rule works. Beneath it lies a deeper logic, born from probability theory and refined by gamblers, traders, and long-term value investors alike. In this article I talk about two competing philosophies, Martingale and Anti-Martingale, and then […]

Intrinsic value is not enough in a world of macro uncertainty You can do everything right as a value investor. Buy below intrinsic value. Demand a margin of safety. Stick to your thesis. And still, your portfolio can suffer when inflation spikes, interest rates lurch, or trade wars disrupt entire sectors. The truth is, intrinsic

You already know that your edge comes from buying undervalued stocks and letting them work over time. But even with a sound process and solid research, you keep second-guessing your trades. You hesitate when it’s time to enter. You trim winners too early. You panic when a position dips. The problem isn’t your strategy, it’s

You don’t need to eliminate risk. You need to understand it, isolate it, and price it correctly. The biggest mistake investors make is treating all risk the same—panicking when markets fall, diversifying blindly, or refusing to act because the future looks uncertain. But the truth is: you don’t get paid for avoiding risk—you get paid

The Edge You’re Ignoring Could Be Costing You Millions. For value investors, risk is not the volatility in the market or in the stock price, but in fact it is how you react to it. Most investors obsess over metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, discounted cash flow models, or EBITDA margins. And yet, the biggest edge